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By
Michael Dahan
Writer is an Israeli-American political
scientist and university lecturer living in Jerusalem. He can be reached
at mdahan@attglobal.net.
Much has been written in support of and against Sharon's planned
disengagement from the Gaza Strip, to include the dismantling of the
settlements in the Gaza Strip, isolated settlements in the northern part
of the West Bank, and the redeployment of the Israeli army within the Gaza
Strip, yet one crucially important aspect has been overlooked by most
commentators: the precedent of dismantling settlements and its potentially
transforming and cathartic affect on Israeli society.
Since 1967, Israel, under both Labour (the first settlements in the Gaza
strip were established by Labour in 1971) and Likud governments has gone
to great pains to populate the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with illegal
settlements, investing roughly 100 billion US dollars in this illegal
enterprise over the course of 38 years, resulting in the presence of
approximately 240,000 Israeli settlers in these occupied territories
(roughly 3.5% of the Israeli population). The settlers themselves and
their representatives have accrued a disproportional amount of political
power (perceived and de facto) over this time period, often being seen as
second only to the Israeli army in their political power, prowess and
influence. The settlers and their political collaborators on the right
have managed to reach positions of influence within the Israeli public
sector, particularly in the government units responsible for land
administration within Israel proper and the territories (hence, for
example, the difficulty in receiving hard data regarding the actual
numbers of "illegal" outposts in the West Bank). In addition to this, many
of the senior and middle level positions within the civil administration
of the territories are held by settlers. Indeed, over the past 5 years the
settlers and their cohorts have taken over more than a third of the Likud
party central committee in a concerted effort to take full control of the
party. Since the early 90s, the settlers and their supporters have waged
what can only be termed a psychological war against Israeli politicians on
the left and right as well as the Israeli public. The purpose of this
psychological war? To strike fear and uncertainty into the hearts of
Israeli citizens and decision makers, preventing them from reaching the
only logical solution to the Palestinian/Israeli conflict - the
dismantling of settlements, a return to the 1967 borders, a just
resolution of the Palestinian refugee issue and the creation of a viable
Palestinian state.
More recently, as the Knesset vote on Sharon's disengagement plan drew
near, central figures among the settlers have been threatening civil war
if Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip. What is more, many prominent
Rabbis on the messianic religious right [1] have called on religious
soldiers in the Israeli army to refuse to participate in the Gaza
redeployment and the dismantling of settlements there and in the north
eastern West Bank. Doing so, according to these figures, will lead to an
irreparable rift within Israeli society and to civil war. In reality, this
is not the case. The withdrawal from the Gaza Strip will not lead to civil
war, nor will it lead to a rift, irreparable or otherwise, in Israel
proper. All the polls and figures point to the fact that the disengagement
plan is supported by at least 70% of the Israeli public. Indeed, there are
few issues on the public agenda in Israel which receive such wide support.
Just as Israel did not suffer from civil war with the dismantling of the
settlements in Sinai it is highly unlikely that this will be the case with
Gaza and the West Bank. Indeed, Israel has only gained in the past by
relinquishing conquered and occupied territories and will continue to
benefit from such actions in the future.
What frightens the settlers is that after 38 years of occupation their
bluff is about to be called. Oddly enough, they are being forced by their
former patron and supporter, Ariel Sharon, to show their hand to the
Israeli public - and that hand is empty. For 38 years the settlers have
managed to paralyze political leaders seeking to divest Israel of the
settlements. Their supporters assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin
and they are now threatening Sharon with physical violence. Following the
disengagement vote in the Knesset last night, graffiti appeared in
Jerusalem and Tel Aviv calling for Sharon's death. For 38 years the
settlers and their cohorts have managed to prevent the single most
important decision facing the Israeli public and the political leadership
of the country: To divest itself of the occupied territories.
Thus, the disengagement plan threatens to tear away the mask of the
settler's mythical power. It will put to the test the settler's threats,
and as in the fairy tale, it will quickly become clear that the emperor is
naked. Once this is internalized by the Israeli public and the political
leadership, the perceived political power of the settlers will dissolve
like mist. Once the public and the political leadership see that
settlements can be dismantled it will likely serve as a domino effect and
the settlers' house of cards will quickly crumble. The settlers will then
be forced to decide where to place their loyalty - with the messianic
vision of "Greater Israel" and its attendant occupation and subjugation of
the Palestinian people or with the state of Israel with defined borders
minus the moral, ethical and political quagmire of the occupation. Yet it
remains to be seen whether Sharon will actually move forward with the
redeployment and dismantling of settlements and whether his government
will be able to withstand the expected political upheaval in the coming
months.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak likes to credit himself with
exposing Arafat's true intentions, rightly or wrongly. Ironically enough,
Ariel Sharon, patron and key architect of the settlement enterprise will
be able to credit himself in the future with exposing the true face of the
settlers and their perceived power, and will make it easier for future
Israeli leaders to dismantle the settlements and move forward towards a
political agreement with the Palestinians.
[1] The settlers have adopted a peculiar messianic form of Judaism similar
in many ways to millennial Christians. Menachem Begin, prior to the
withdrawal from Sinai noted that the settler's judgment has been clouded
by messianic visions - a statement quoted by Sharon in his speech prior to
the Knesset vote on the disengagement plan.
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